It’s no secret the 2026 Detroit Tigers have been one of the biggest disappointments in Major League Baseball. Following back-to-back ALDS appearances and an offseason spending spree, 2026 felt like the moment for Detroit to break through. Plagued by injuries, an inconsistent offense, and the most blown leads after seven innings in baseball, the Tigers enter the All-Star break eight games under .500.
In spite of the record, the Tigers are alive in a historically bad American League at only 3.5 games out of a wild card spot, and 6.5 out of the AL Central lead as of July 14th. A month ago, Detroit was an obvious trade deadline seller. Tarik Skubal is an ace rarely available at the deadline, and Casey Mize is positioning himself as the next best option for teams in need of starting pitching.
A 22-14 record since June 1st is muddying the waters. In truth, the Tigers are not a true World Series contender given the state of its bullpen and holes in the lineup. Yet, there is a convincing argument that a healthy Tigers team is the second-best squad in this American League.
It is a challenging position to be in as a front office. Tarik Skubal is unlikely to re-up this offseason as he seeks a historic payday. Losing him for a compensatory draft pick will sting, even more so if it comes on the back of missing the playoffs. Casey Mize is pitching the best baseball of his career, Jack Flaherty is turning around a dreadful start, and there are a few other pending free agents that contenders will show interest in.
Out of the break, Detroit has 16 games before the August 3rd trade deadline. It is a favorable schedule with series against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, and the Athletics. Of the five, only Chicago has a winning record. To justify buying, or at least retaining the current roster, Detroit needs to be within a game or two of .500, meaning somewhere around a 12-4 record. It is doable, but nothing about the 2026 Tigers inspires confidence in that happening.
The argument to sell
Entering the season, I expected the Tigers to win the AL pennant and be aggressive buyers at the deadline in order to win with Tarik Skubal. Now, I believe the best path forward is turning attention towards 2027 and cashing in on two of the biggest assets available in Skubal and Mize. A 2027 rotation comprised of Framber Valdez, Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, and Reese Olson has the potential to be very strong, and that is before any offseason additions. There is enough talent in the lineup to build around and contend next season. Kevin McGonigle is on track to win Rookie of the Year, Riley Greene is a 3x All-Star, and Dillon Dingler is turning into a star.
As rentals, Skubal and Mize will likely not command eye-popping trade packages that stars with term net. That does not mean, however, that the Tigers cannot secure healthy returns on the trade market. Mize is having a career season, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in 14 starts with the best strikeout numbers of his career. For context, here are some trades from the last 10 deadlines involving rental starting pitchers, several of which involved the Tigers. Prospect rankings ,via MLB Pipeline, at the time of each trade are in parenthesis.
2024
Dodgers receive: Jack Flaherty
Tigers receive: C/1B Thayron Liranzo (LAD #7), SS Trey Sweeney (LAD #22)
2023
Rangers receive: Max Scherzer
Mets receive: INF Luisangel Acuna (MLB #44, TEX #3)
2017
Astros receive: Justin Verlander
Tigers receive: SP Franklin Perez (MLB #46, HOU #3), OF Daz Cameron (HOU #9), C Jake Rogers HOU #11)
Dodgers receive: Yu Darvish
Rangers receive: INF Willie Calhoun (MLB #69, LAD #4), SP AJ Alexy (LAD #17), SS Brendon Davis (LAD #27)
2015
Blue Jays receive: David Price
Tigers receive: SP Daniel Norris (MLB #18, TOR #1), SP Matthew Boyd (TOR #22), RP Jario Labourt (TOR #13)
Royals receive: Johnny Cueto
Reds receive: SP Brandon Finnegan (MLB #55, KC #4), Cody Reed (KC #27), John Lamb (KC #29)
The above trades reveal a few realities. First, and most obvious, no prospect is guaranteed to pan out. Tigers fans learned that firsthand with the David Price trade. Daniel Norris never lived up to his billing as an elite left-handed starter, but Matthew Boyd turned into a solid lefty in the rotation. Second, it is commonplace to net a top-100 consensus prospect that is close to MLB-ready for an ace, plus another piece or two. Historical hit rate aside, quality prospects exchange hands in this type of deal.
The 2015 Tigers are worth examining more here. They entered the deadline 50-52 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. The team was a disappointment after four AL Central titles in a row. Similarly to this squad, they entered the season among the favorites to win the AL with a seemingly loaded team. Instead, Dave Dombrowski decided to trade David Price, Yoenis Cepsedes, and Joakim Soria. Dombrowski’s successor, Al Avila, failed to capitalize on those successful trades, and the Tigers did not make the playoffs again until 2023. Newcomers Michael Fulmer (acquired for Cespedes), Matthew Boyd, and Daniel Norris gave the Tigers immediate hope and, for the most part, success. A similar deadline approach now could put Detroit in a better spot to contend from 2027 onward.
In what should be a seller’s market, Scott Harris needs to be realistic about the state of the Tigers and position the team for success in 2027 and beyond. That means cashing in on Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize and netting multiple MLB-ready players in return. The interest list for Skubal and Mize will be long, making the likelihood of a bidding war high. Rarely is a team poised to control the market like Detroit is now.
While not as desirable of an asset, Jack Flaherty could wind up elsewhere come August 3rd. He’s pitched to a 2.17 ERA in his last six starts after a disastrous beginning to the campaign. Repeated injuries for Gleyber Torres likely leave him off the market. I would prefer to bring Torres back this winter anyway. Kenley Jansen, Drew Anderson, and Jake Rogers are pending free agents (Anderson and Jansen have club options), but are not going to net Detroit anything more than a lottery ticket.
If the Tigers do not fight their way into a playoff spot come August 3rd, selling is the smart option. Acquire a couple of pieces that will contribute right away in 2027 (or even this season) and try to make the playoffs this season, 2024 style.
Buying or standing pat
The worst option is to stand pat. As presently constructed, this team is not good enough to win the World Series. The bullpen is among the weakest of any contender, and the lineup still has major weaknesses. Should the Tigers come out of the break on fire, the conversation will shift to Detroit as buyers. The prospect pool gives them ammo to make moves that Scott Harris refused to make in 2025. I find this scenario unlikely, but maybe the narrative will change in the coming weeks. Standing pat should not be accepted by anyone. Either accept this team is not good enough and capitalize on two major trade assets, or throw caution to the wind and buy in hopes of everything coming together in October.
At the end of the day, I believe it is in the Tigers’ best interests to trade Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. That does not mean the season is over; we saw what happened in 2024. In a historically weak American League, the same outcome is possible again. But that does not make the Tigers a World Series championship threat. Instead, take a step back, nail moves this offseason, and come back in 2027 with a team capable of winning the World Series. The pressure is on one way or another for Scott Harris and the front office and it is time to capitalize.
